Confidence Decay Model

Self-Evolving Skill — Gate 4 Freshness Visualization
C(t) = C0 × e−λbase × (β+1)/(α+1) × t α = positive feedback (slows decay)  |  β = negative feedback (accelerates decay)  |  t = days since confirmed
TRUST / 信任 (C ≥ 0.8)
VERIFY / 待验 (0.5 ≤ C < 0.8)
REVALIDATE / 重验 (C < 0.5)
Effective λ / 有效衰减率
0.003
Bayesian Factor / 贝叶斯因子
1.000
Half-life / 半衰期
231 days
Days to VERIFY / 进入待验区
74 days
Days to REVALIDATE / 进入重验区
231 days

Parameters / 参数

Knowledge Type
知识类型
α (positive feedback)
正反馈次数
0
β (negative feedback)
负反馈次数
0
C0 (initial confidence)
初始置信度
1.0